[轉載]經濟下滑再次出現的風險

經濟下滑再次出現的風險 (The risk of another downturn)
Sep 7th 2009
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire



Germany's economy is on the up,but it could yet tip back into recession

德國經濟正在企穩回升，但是它還有可能轉向衰退

The performance of the German economy appears to be improving—the country emerged from recession in the second quarter and signs from the third quarter are generally positive. Although Germany's exporters have been hit hard by the global crisis, domestic demand has held up well. However , there are reasons to doubt that the recovery will be sustainable. A double-dip recession for the global economy would drag down Germany's exports again. The banking sector was heavily exposed to US-originated toxic assets, and a credit crunch could yet kick in . And unemployment has been slow to rise, partly because of government incentives, but is sure to increase as firms start to address over-capacity. There is therefore a considerable risk that the economy will tip back into recession.

德國經濟表現似乎正在改善，在二季度德國擺脫了衰退的陰影，並且從第三季度的信號來看，整體上是積極的。 儘管德國出口商遭受到了全球經濟危機的重創，但是國內需求很好地承受住了經濟危機帶來的壓力。 然而，人們對於此次經濟復甦是否可持續抱有疑慮。 有以下原因。 全球經濟雙底型衰退再次拖累德國出口。 銀行業充斥著來自美國的壞賬。 並且可能爆發信貸緊縮。 在一定程度上由於政府的刺激方案，失業率增速放緩。 但隨著企業開始整治員工過剩，肯定會上升。 因此存在著經濟轉向衰退的巨大風險。

The German economy pulled out of recession in the second quarter, growing by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Indicators suggest that the recovery may have gathered pace in the third quarter. Manufacturing orders, although still down sharply in year-on-year terms , have picked up from the highly depressed levels of the early months of the year. The Munich-based Ifo institute's business climate rose for a fifth consecutive month in August, to 90.5, from 87.4 in July, taking it to its highest level since September 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The Nuremberg-based GfK group's consumer confidence index, meanwhile, rose in August to its highest level since June 2008.

德國經濟二季度走出衰退，季環比增長0.3%。 經濟預測數據表明經濟回暖可能已經於第三季度加速。 雖然生產訂單年環比仍然急劇下降，但是已經從今年前幾個月極度低迷的水平中恢復過來。 慕尼黑IFO研究所的商業環境指數已經連續第五個月上升，從7月的87.4攀升至90.5，達到了自2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒閉以來的最高水平。 與此同時，GFK集團的消費者信心指數在8月達到了自2008年6月以來的最高水平。

In some respects, moreover, Germany has displayed resilience in the face of the global crisis. The deep drop in global demand has
unsurprisingly resulted in a sizeable contraction for Germany, where exports account for an unusually large proportion of GDP (the country is the largest exporter of goods in the world). Real GDP was down by 6.7% year on year in the first quarter and by 5.9 % in the second. But private consumption has held up far better than in other major developed economies. Germany has not suffered from either a credit or house-price boom, and households' finances are robust. Relatively resilient private consumption helps to limit the strain of the downturn on the fiscal position, as Germany has not suffered from the collapse in revenue seen in, for example, the UK (although stimulus measures and automatic stabilisers still mean that the German government deficit has swollen considerably).

並且，面對經濟危機時，德國在一定程度上展現出了堅挺的一面。 預料之中的是，全球經濟的急劇下降導致了巨大的經濟萎縮。 在德國，出口量驚人的占到了GDP的一大部分（德國是世界上最大的貨物出口國）。 一季度，實際GDP年環比下降6.7%，二季度為5.9%。 但是個人消費比其他主要發達國家要遠遠堅強。 德國並未遭受到信貸緊縮或者房價飆升，家庭財務狀況也處於強勁狀態。 相對的來講，堅挺的個人消費幫助德國限制了經濟下滑給財政狀況所帶來的壓力，因為它並未出現英國所發生的稅收銳減的情況（儘管刺激方案和經濟自動穩定器意味著德國政府赤字已經大量增加。）

Renewed recession?

經濟衰退捲土重來？

Nevertheless, there are major risks to the sustainability of Germany's recovery. The first is that the global economy experiences a double-dip recession—the Economist Intelligence Unit sees this as a strong possibility, as the current upturn is strongly dependent on stimulus measures and may not prove self-sustaining once the effects of such measures wane. This would hit the export revival on which Germany's recovery depends. There are already concerns that the upturn in German output in recent months has been flattered by a rebound in inventories from their extremely low levels in the first quarter.

不過，德國經濟復甦的可持續性面臨著幾個風險。 第一，全球經濟經歷了雙底衰退，本版認為這種情況出現的可能性非常大。 因為當前經濟上升非常強地依賴於刺激方案，一旦這些刺激方案作用減弱直至消失，經濟復甦有可能不會可持續。 這樣德國經濟復甦所依靠的出口回暖會遭受打擊。 有些人已經註意到德國近幾個月出口的逆勢上揚被商業庫存從其一季度時極低水平中強勁反彈給誇大了。

The second danger is from the domestic banking sector. It is becoming increasingly clear that Germany's banks are among the worst affected by the global financial crisis—not because of domestic developments, but because of the huge income flows that accrued to the country from its export boom being invested in a range of most US-originated financial instruments whose value has collapsed and which are now illiquid. The German financial supervision authority, BaFin, estimated earlier this year that German banks were still sitting on over €800bn of toxic assets.

第二個危險來自於其本國的銀行業。 人們越來越清楚地看到，德國銀行處於遭受全球金融危機最嚴重影響之列。 這並不是由於國內發展，而是得過一段時間以來靠快速增長的出口所帶來的龐大現金收入流投資於一系列大部分已經貶值，目前並沒有市場流動性的美國金融衍生品。 德國金融監管管理機構Ba Fin,在今年早些時候預測德國銀行仍然有超過8000億歐元的壞賬。

The government has been reluctant to discuss the measures needed to stabilise the sector ahead of the general election due in September 2009, owing to fear of admitting to voters the size of the potential losses they may have to bear. A "bad bank" scheme approved in July falls far short of what is required. There are fears however that a serious credit crunch could begin later in 2009 and into 2010 once moves to clean up the sector start in earnest.

政府不情願在今年9月的普選之前討論有關穩定銀行業所需措施，主要是擔心向選民們承認他們有可能要承擔的潛在損失的規模。 於7月份通過的“業績不佳銀行”方案遠沒有達到人們所要求的。 然而，有人擔心嚴重的信貸緊縮會於09年晚些時候開始出現，並且，一旦整頓銀行業的行動適時展開，將有可能進入2010年。

Finally, employment trends could weigh on the economy. A government scheme that allows firms to put underused employees on short-time working, and which subsidises their pay, has stopped unemployment rising sharply—around 1.4m workers are currently in the scheme. There are also suspicions that large firms keen to avoid a swing to the left are striving to keep job losses to a minimum ahead of the election in September. Unemployment has therefore crept up only modestly, by around a quarter of a million, to a rate of 8.2 %.

最後，就業趨勢也是經濟不得不考慮的。 一項允許公司向未使用的員工提供短時工作，並補貼其開支的政府計劃，遏制住了失業率的急劇上升。 該計劃目前囊括140萬名員工。 也有人懷疑，想避免政權向左翼傾斜的大公司正竭力確保失業率在9月的大選之前維持在一個最低水平。 因此，失業人數才僅僅小幅度上升25萬，失業率達到8.2%。

However, even if the global recovery continues, German firms will still find themselves with excess capacity, as it will take years for world trade to recover to previous levels. Unemployment in manufacturing is therefore bound to rise further. If the external environment remains favourable, some of the rise could be absorbed by an expansion of employment in services. But labour market developments will still dampen the economy's performance, and in the context of a double-dip recession even higher unemployment could reinforce the downward trend in GDP.

但是，即使全球經濟回暖持續下去，德國的公司人會覺得員工過剩，因為全球貿易需要數年才能恢復到原來的水平。 因此生產行業失業率肯定會進一步上升。 如果外部經濟環境仍然是有利的，那麼服務行業就業率增長會吸收一部分失業增長。 但是勞動力市場發展狀況仍然會令經濟表現不佳，並且在雙底下降衰退的大背景下，更高的失業率會增強GDP下行趨勢。

The Economist Intelligence Unit is already cautious about the sustainability of a recovery in the German economy. Assuming that the worst is indeed over for this year, we forecast that real GDP will contract by 5.3% for 2009 as a whole. However, we expect a further modest contraction, of 0.2%, in 2010. The risk is that, under the impact of further shocks from global demand, the banking system and the labour market, the weakening expected in the final quarter of 2009 and into 2010 could be greater than forecast.

本版對德國經濟的本次回暖持謹慎態度。 假設最糟糕的時期於今年結束，我們預測09年實際GDP整體會縮水5.3%。 不過在2010年會有進一步小幅度的萎縮，為0.2%。 風險在於，受全球需求進一步突變的影響，即銀行系統和勞動力市場，預測的09年四季度和10年的疲軟趨勢有可能比估計的還要強烈。

轉載自ECON中文論壇