英國《金融時報》 社評 2011-09-09 (www.ftchinese.com)
It was a spirited president of the European Central Bank who gave his last but one press conference on Thursday. Jean-Claude Trichet hit some valedictory notes defending the ECB’s record on inflation and its handling of the crisis. Nevertheless, Mr Trichet and his colleagues compounded a mistake by leaving in place rates they wrongly raised in April and July.
周四，在自己的倒數第二次新聞發布會上，歐洲央行(ECB)行長讓-克洛德•特裡謝(Jean-Claude Trichet)顯得精力充沛。他發表了一些帶有“告別”意味的言辭，為歐洲央行在通脹問題和危機處理方面的記錄進行了辯護。不過，特裡謝和他的同事們還是犯下了一個錯誤——任由4月份和7月份兩次錯誤上調的利率維持原狀。
In reporting downgraded forecasts for growth and inflation, Mr Trichet joined the chorus of those observing the world economy powering down. On the same day, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development issued its own sharply reduced forecasts. After saying growth prospects warranted interest rises in the spring, the OECD now expects stagnation across the industrialised world for the rest of the year – and a contraction in Germany. Similar pessimism made the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee hold its policy rate unchanged at the record-low level of 0.5 per cent.
特裡謝宣佈調低經濟增長和通脹預期，由此加入了認為全球經濟正在走弱的陣營。在同一天，經濟與合作組織(OECD)也發表了一份預測，大幅調低了對增長前景的預期。在春季，經合組織曾宣稱經濟增長的前景證明瞭加息的合理性，而如今，該組織預計工業化國家在今年剩餘時間內都將面臨停滯——其中，德國將出現經濟收縮。同樣悲觀的預期，促使英國央行(Bank of England)貨幣政策委員會決定將政策利率維持在0.5%的低位。
That makes it all the stranger for the ECB not to reverse its earlier rate rises. The risks to growth are now on the downside and the upward risks of inflation have abated. On most measures, the quantity of money and credit in the eurozone is stagnant or shrinking in real terms. When should interest rates be cut, if not now?
在這種情況下，歐洲央行沒有採取降息舉措顯得古怪至極。如今，經濟增長面臨的風險正在降低，而通脹上行的風險也已減弱。以實際值計，歐元區的貨幣和信貸數量很大程度上已停滯、甚至出現萎縮。此時不降息，更待何時？
Particularly disappointing is the ECB’s decision not to lower the rate paid on funds deposited with the central bank. This rate is usually moved in lockstep with the main refinancing rate, but could be independently lowered from its current 0.75 per cent level. Mr Trichet was right to note eurozone banks get all the liquidity they ask for; but increasingly they have been putting their liquid funds on deposit at the ECB instead of lending to one another. Making deposits less attractive would bolster the interbank lending market.
尤其令人失望的，是歐洲央行決定不下調存款準備金率。存款準備金率通常與主要再融資利率保持同步，但也可以單獨下調（目前的水平是0.75%）。特裡謝指出，歐元區各銀行所要求的流動性全部得到了滿足，此言不錯；但它們越來越傾向於將資金存入歐洲央行，而非彼此間拆借。降低將資金存放在歐洲央行的吸引力，將提振銀行間拆借市場。
But the decisions that matter most, and about which Mr Trichet would say the least, are those on the ECB’s purchases of sovereign bonds. Frankfurt scaled these back after the first shock intervention in Italian and Spanish debt markets last month – but last week it bought more again. Even so, the two countries’ yields rose. Having gone into the market, the ECB cannot now exit without causing more turmoil. That is far from ideal, but Frankfurt must keep buying – in for a cent, in for a euro – until governments hand the job to the European financial stability facility. That could still take time. In the meantime, the ECB acts alone – not always perfectly, but at least it is doing something.
但最為重要的決定，也是特裡謝將最少提及的，是歐洲央行有關購買主權債券的決策。在上月對意大利和西班牙債券市場進行突然乾預之後，歐洲央行方面縮減了主權債券的購買數量，但從上周起，它再度開始增加購買量。即便如此，上述兩國國債的收益率仍有所上升。歐洲央行已經闖入了市場，如今再退出，必然會造成市場的更多動盪。盡管這種狀況很不理想，但歐洲央行必須一不做二不休，繼續購買——直到相關國家政府將重擔交給歐洲金融穩定安排(EFSF)。這還需要一些時日。在此期間，歐洲央行只能獨自行動——盡管表現不總是那麽完美，但至少它在做一些事情。
譯者/吳蔚
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